Future of Work 
As society begins to adapt and normalize alongside the COVID virus, the repercussions for office space – and the way we work – will be fascinating and complex.
Derek Thompson of The Atlantic recently drew attention to the stark disparity between the return to normalcy in leisure activities and the reality that many Americans simply aren’t returning to the office.
While stadium and travel seem to have bounced back, office attendance remains mired at 33 percent of its pre-pandemic average.
Thompson turns to Stanford Economist Nick Bloom to elaborate on the reality and future of the office and its stakeholders. Bloom notes that despite expectations that US workers will spend roughly 25% of their time working from home, “corporate demand for office space is down only about 1 percent (in New York).”
“That might sound shocking, but it’s because so many companies planning for hybrid work are expecting most of the office to be in on some days of the week, so they can’t shrink their space.”
Thompson highlights that this contrast exposes one of the crucial choices companies will need to make moving forward. Firms will be asked to either significantly decrease their office footprint, or accept that much of that floor space will go unused on any given day.
Summer Fridays For Forever?
The five-day workweek is under pressure – some employers, including Vancouver-based gaming company BlackBird Interactive have already adopted a 4-day workweek and others believe the 5-day workweek may cease to exist altogether. Working in a remote setting Mondays and Fridays, and in-office Tuesday through Thursday has become an expectation for many.
“This model, with Friday through Monday out of office, is hugely attractive to new hires, and it’s become a key weapon for companies. It’s not that everybody gets a four-day weekend, but rather it gives them flexibility to travel on Fridays and Mondays, while continuing to work.”
Nick Bloom, Stanford Economist
The article suggest that for tens of millions of knowledge-economy workers, the office will never return to 5 full days. This breeds resentment for workers that can’t do their job from home. These same workers see the flexibility provided to their white-collar friends and it has fueled their requests to work longer for 4 days versus fewer hours for all 5 days. Bloom suggests that the “real nail in the coffin” for the 5-day workweek would be schools responding to these changes by offering teachers Monday or Friday off. Which we then all ask the problematic question “What do I do if my kid’s school cancels Fridays forever?”
The rise of the office as an experience.
With record high job openings and the hunt for talent, employers need to be creative with attracting talent. This includes the physical space that enables the social interactions that the majority need.
“Successful new offices will be like vertical yachts, an experience that people seek out, with terraces, and outdoor areas, and fancy gyms, and places to eat.” States Mitchell Moss, a professor of urban policy and planning at New York University.
While it remains to be seen if the act of “yachtifying” spaces will be enough to attract employees, many companies have begun to undertake these projects in the hopes of distinguishing themselves in a competitive hiring market.
The Future for Cities
The Atlantic also considers the ripple effect on cities, should office occupancy never recover to its pre-pandemic levels. Emptier offices will diminish demand for restaurants, shopping districts, transit infrastructure, and maintenance services. This in turn will reduce the strength of downtown economies and likely reduce taxable income for cities.
Knowing this, it’s not surprising that some of the most ardent advocates for returning to the office aren’t business leaders but politicians and city officials.
While the network effects of lower demand for office space are difficult to parse – what remains clear is that we are only just starting to see the full ramifications of a stark change in the way people work.
